• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said Tehran will continue to fight until the US accepts its demands, despite insisting it does not seek an endless war.
• Oil prices rise after Tehran deploys new tactics against cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• US CENTCOM has confirmed the destruction of an Iranian-affiliated vessel on October 6 for conducting surveillance and targeting of US Navy ships in the Gulf of Oman.

US war on Iran

UNDP chief sounds alarm on growing poverty after Iran war shock

Millions of people could be thrown into poverty by surging energy costs, with vulnerable countries being pushed to the brink by repeated crises, the UN’s development chief has said.

UN Development Program (UNDP) head Alexander De Croo said many developing countries had responded to the current spike in energy prices with blanket subsidies, but a succession of crises had left them with limited resources to keep that up.

Fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios around the world have ballooned since the 2008 global financial crisis, with governments firefighting against a series of shocks including the COVID pandemic and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

“You have to repair your roof while at the same time your home is on fire,” he told the AFP news agency, adding that governments in the developing world did not have time to rebuild buffers or resolve previous shocks before being hit by new crises.

US ‘Mother of All Bombs’ could be used against Iran

The United States has developed plans to strike Iran with the largest non-nuclear bomb in its military arsenal on Iran’s energy infrastructure and nuclear sites if President Donald Trump orders renewed combat operations, according to US officials cited by CNN.

Deploying the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB), nicknamed the “mother of all bombs”, could significantly escalate the ongoing conflict at a time when fighting has lulled, experts say.

Concerns are also being raised, including within the Trump administration itself, over what such a move would even achieve. Officials familiar with military planning discussions told US news outlet CNN and Al Jazeera that deploying the MOAB would be unlikely to help the US achieve its stated strategic goals, including to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

IRGC says US in ‘shaky’ position, ready to confront threats on land, sea and air

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says its forces are prepared to confront threats across the country, including on land, at sea and in the air.

“We are ready in all areas, including ground, naval, air, air defence and security, throughout the country, and have established a strong defensive front,” Major-General Mostafa Izadi, deputy commander-in-chief of the IRGC, said, according to the Fars News Agency.

“The enemy is in a shaky position and makes new claims each time to cover up this situation,” he added.

Izadi also referred to the US military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying American forces had “fled in haste” in both countries.

IRAN-US talks

Pezeshkian says ‘bombs and missiles’ cannot force surrender

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that military action cannot force a country into submission.

“You cannot force a society to surrender with bombs and missiles, but if we are divided and divided from within, the enemy will achieve his goal,” Pezeshkian said during a speech, according to Iran’s IRNA news agency.

“We must find a way to strengthen national cohesion and unity and stand together in the face of the difficulties ahead,” he added.

Trump weighs military options as talks with Iran remain deadlocked

United States President Donald Trump has stated on his social media platform Truth Social that he will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.

But he also told a Republican Party convention in September that the conflict “is going to end immediately after the elections”, and the US military has been sending more forces to the region in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have surged to their highest level since the war began, with an Iranian official telling the Reuters news agency that Tehran has begun using different offensive tactics against vessels it considers to violate its restrictions.

Nuclear issue

White House official: Trump considering all options to keep Iran from nuclear weapon

A White House official has told Al Jazeera that US President Donald Trump is keeping all options on the table to ensure Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said yesterday that his and Trump’s responsibility is to do “what is necessary” to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear capabilities.

Strait of Hormuz

Oil tanker on fire in eastern Strait of Hormuz following ‘violation’: Iran’s navy

A “violating” oil tanker is on fire in the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state television is reporting, citing the country’s navy.

“This offending tanker attempted to cross the prohibited area in the Sea of Oman by turning off its tracking systems,” the navy said, according to IRIB.

Strait of Hormuz attacks surge as Iran steps up surveillance, disrupting oil flows

Iran has deployed new naval units to expand surveillance of the Strait of Hormuz as attacks on commercial vessels reach their highest levels since the US-Israeli war began in February.

The navy said the new deployment would allow “real time surveillance of enemy activities and maritime traffic” across the strait, the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea, according to Iranian state media.

According to maritime tracking firm Kpler, 10 tankers were struck in the strait between September 28 and October 4, followed by another strike on October 5.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre has separately recorded 15 other attacks between October 6 and October 14, with 11 of them occurring in just the past four days.

The escalation has disrupted oil shipments through the strategic waterway. Kpler data showed that just 2.9 million barrels passed through Hormuz on October 11, down from nearly 20.8 million barrels on October 8.

Iran maintains its restrictions are a response to the US-Israeli attacks and Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, while US Central Command insists American forces and regional partners control the strait.

The competing claims highlight the continuing struggle over the waterway, through which about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed before the war.

CENTCOM dismisses Iranian claims about Strait of Hormuz and Jordan attack

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has dismissed three Iranian claims in a post on X.

CENTCOM said the US and regional partners continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, despite a claim of authority over the critical waterway by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Yesterday, the IRGC said a Singapore-flagged container ship sank after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM responded to Iran’s statement, claiming that the civilian vessel was hit by an Iranian projectile and sank “while being towed to shore”.

CENTCOM also dismissed claims that the IRGC “killed hundreds of US service members in Jordan”.

“Three American service members were killed in action in July as partner forces defended against Iranian attacks”, CENTCOM said.

Iranian army commander says no ‘enemy vessels’ have entered Strait of Hormuz, Omani waters

Iranian army commander Amir Hatami says the Strait of Hormuz is under “full surveillance”, with armed forces prepared for battle, Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reports.

Hatami told Imam Ali Officers’ University that, with the surveillance of the army and the IRGC, “not a single enemy vessel has been able to enter the maritime space of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.”

Senior Iranian army chief warns against attempting Strait of Hormuz transit

Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, deputy coordinator of Iran’s army, has warned that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that those who transit it “without coordination will see what happens to them”.

“We will confront enemy threats by relying on new equipment and the capabilities of our young people,” he said, as reported by Mehr news agency.

“The Iranian army’s navy has a strong presence on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz and maintains full control and surveillance over the area.”

On Wednesday, US Central Command had rejected assertions by the commander of the IRGC Navy that Tehran controlled the strait and would sink approaching US warships.

Hormuz shipping disruption is starting to hit harvests, UN agency says

The impact of the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is already becoming visible in agricultural harvests, threatening to lower farm yields and push up food prices, the head of ‌a United Nations rural development agency has said.

“The pass-through from the initial locking down of the Strait of Hormuz … is now starting to be seen,” International Fund for Agricultural Development President Alvaro Lario told the Reuters news agency.

Hormuz-related disruptions to fertiliser shipments and higher fuel and transport costs, compounded by ⁠El Nino and disruptions to Black Sea wheat supplies, are adding costs throughout the food supply chain, he said.

Lario added that existing fertiliser and fuel stocks initially cushioned the shock, but prolonged uncertainty has led to more cautious planting and reduced fertilizer use.

Higher fuel costs are also affecting ‌mechanised ⁠harvesting, he said.

UKMTO warns of ‘severe’ threat to shipping in Strait of Hormuz

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre says the threat to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains “severe”, warning that further attacks are highly likely amid continued Iranian military activity.

In its latest advisory, issued on behalf of the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), UKMTO reported eight attacks involving projectiles of unknown origin against vessels in the strait on October 11 and 13.

The incidents involved four tankers and four container ships, including the GFS Pride, which caught fire and sank on October 14.

“IRGC attacks, attempted attacks and/or harassment activity persisted,” the advisory said, citing drone overflights, surveillance of merchant vessels and radio warnings.

The centre also said commercial traffic remained well below pre-war levels, although US-assisted vessel movements averaged approximately 30 transits a day over the previous 96 hours.

It warned that vessels travelling with their identification systems switched on faced an elevated risk of being targeted or ordered to divert towards Iranian-controlled routes.

The advisory also reported 149 maritime security incidents across the region since March 1.

Oil & Oil markets

Oil prices fall over $1 a barrel

Oil prices are falling in early trade on Thursday as investors weigh risks to supply from attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz against US efforts to cut petroleum shipping costs by easing sanctions on vessels.

Brent crude futures fell $1.39, or 1.31 percent, to $104.67 a barrel as of 01:16 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.02, or 1.07 percent, to $94.07, reversing gains from the previous session.

WTI rose to a three-week high in the prior session after the Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s headquarters and Iran said it was deploying new tactics to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz and keep oil prices high.

A container ship and a dry bulk carrier both sank near the strait in the past 24 hours after being hit by projectiles in separate incidents, maritime officials said on Wednesday.

Attacks around the waterway have surged over the past 10 days, with Iran saying it is stepping up attacks in response to the US blockade of its ports and tougher sanctions introduced last month.

IEA confirms release of 330 million barrels of oil reserves amid Iran war disruptions

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has confirmed the release of about 330 million barrels of emergency reserves of oil . It is part of the agreement reached in March when member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels to address the supply disruption caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The IEA Governing Board said it had agreed to accelerate the release of the remaining 100 million barrels from the reserves, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. The statement added that plans to expedite the release are already in place.

The board noted that the total volume of stocks to be released exceeded the original total of 400 million barrels, as some member countries released higher quantities than initially pledged.

Early this month, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said about 325 million barrels had already been released under the agreement.

US arbitrary sanctionism

Under modern international law, the legality of unilateral sanctions is inherently tied to whether the state imposing them is responding to an initial illegal act. Because the attacking belligerent is the original violator of the prohibition on the use of force (Article 2(4) of the UN Charter), any "arbitrary sanctions" it levies cannot be legally justified.

US issues new Iran-related sanctions

The US has issued new Iran-related sanctions targeting 16 people and 10 entities, according to a notice posted on the US Treasury Department website.

As the US and Iran remain deadlocked and the Strait of Hormuz is all but closed, the US has increased its sanctions on Tehran, deepening the country’s economic crisis.

Sanctions to continue until Iran’s ‘coffers empty’, says US’s Bessent

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said his department will continue its sanctions campaign until “the Iranian regime’s coffers are empty”.

Bessent said in a social media post the Treasury Department “will not relent until … every remaining financial lifeline sustaining [Iran’s] war machine has been severed”.

“The noose is tightening around Iran’s economy, and not even Iran’s so-called allies can save it,” he said.

Earlier today, the Treasury Department announced new Iran-related sanctions targeting 16 people and 10 entities.

(delusional) US politics

Trump reiterates claim Iran war will end ‘very soon’ as attacks on ships intensify

US President Donald Trump has reiterated his claim that the war on Iran will end “very soon”, despite an increase in attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking at a rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, Trump said Washington had taken “total control” of the strategic waterway and claimed Iran had lost its navy, air force, radar systems and air defences.

“Their first level leaders are gone. They picked a second level. Their second level leaders have gone. They picked the third level. Half of them are gone, they made me promise not to take out any more. And I did. I promised them,” he said.

Trump suggested the attacks had complicated negotiations with Tehran: “So I probably went a little too far. I’m sorry, because I don’t know who the hell we’re dealing with anymore.”

Trump acknowledged that the conflict had pushed up fuel prices, but predicted they would fall once fighting ended.

“I knew gasoline would go high, but I had no idea. I thought it was going to go much higher, to be honest with you,” he said, adding that when the war ends, prices would drop “very soon”.

Trump says leakers of information about US military operations ‘should be shot dead’

President Trump has said people who leak information about US military operations to the media “should be shot dead”.

He made the comment during a campaign rally in Arizona.

Trump expressed his anger at an unidentified source who allegedly leaked information to journalists about the timing of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

He said: “Those who leak information should be executed by firing squad,” adding that those involved in leaks were executed in this way “in the past”.

Other developments

Iran vows further crackdown on Starlink as internet restrictions tighten

Iranian authorities have pledged to intensify their crackdown on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service, describing it as a “tool of war” used by the country’s enemies for espionage and military operations.

Mohammad Amin Aghamiri, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Cyberspace Council, said authorities had several systems capable of disrupting Starlink connections.

“It is a tool used for command and control by the enemy, for espionage and information gathering,” he said.

Using or possessing Starlink in Iran can carry prison sentences of six months to two years, while importing or distributing terminals can result in up to five years in prison.

Iran has already imposed two prolonged internet shutdowns this year, including an 88-day blackout following the start of the US-Israel war on Iran in February.

Government officials have also warned that further restrictions could follow if the war intensifies, despite growing reliance on satellite connections to bypass state censorship.

US-Israel forces behind increasing separatist activity in Iran, says Tehran professor

Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor of West Asian Studies at Tehran University, claims that increasing activities by separatist movements in the Sistan and Baluchestan province are part of escalating US and Israeli efforts to destabilise Iran’s internal security.

Ahmadian told Al Jazeera that the last few months had witnessed a remarkable uptick in arms- and people-smuggling operations, which had led to increasing clashes and attacks on the ground as well as casualties among civilians and security personnel.

Ahmadian said US-Israeli efforts in supporting and arming separatist activity were primarily aimed at creating widespread security chaos in Iran.

X takes down Iranian-linked accounts targeting US politics ahead of midterm elections

Social media platform X says it has suspended accounts linked to a suspected Iranian influence operation targeting US political discussions ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

In a post on X, the company’s Global Government Affairs team said it had suspended more than 13,000 accounts across three suspected foreign influence operations linked to Iran, Russia and China.

According to the statement, the networks used fake accounts to post and amplify political content, targeting candidates and public figures across the political spectrum.

“Whether it is spam networks or entities engaged in influence operations, we are actively working to identify and stop coordinated inauthentic behavior that undermines the integrity of our platform,” the company said.

The social media giant did not specify how many accounts were linked to Iran or provide further details about the Iranian operation.

Islamabad, Cairo back ‘dialogue and diplomacy’ to ease regional tensions

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty reaffirmed that “dialogue and diplomacy” remain the only way forward to address regional issues during a telephone call on Wednesday.

The two officials discussed the latest developments across the region, agreeing to maintain close engagement and continue supporting efforts aimed at de-escalation, according to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry.

IMF warns Gulf economies will not return to pre-war growth soon

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economies in the Middle East to bounce back, but not in the medium term, the organization's regional chief said.

“We will not go back to the pre-war trajectory in the medium term because this shock will have a scarring impact on various sectors and also will disrupt a certain number of infrastructure and will require additional spending in order to increase resilience,” IMF regional director Jihad Azour told reporters.

The statement comes as the IMF projects contraction in Gulf economies following months of war that began with US-Israeli attacks on Iran and has spread to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with maritime energy traffic still impacted.

The IMF on Tuesday released projections showing that the Middle East and Central Asia region – directly exposed to the war on Iran – is expected to contract 0.3 percent in 2026.

Saudi Arabia is among the worst affected, with its economy projected to shrink 3.3 percent.