| Highlights from yesterday |
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- The US Central Command (CENTCOM) disputes the IRGC claim that the Panama-flagged oil tanker El Gaia struck a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz, saying the vessel was hit by an Iranian missile last month and struck again by an Iranian drone this weekend as it sat in waters off the coast of Oman.
- US President Donald Trump has again said that “Iran wants to make a deal” but added that he will “determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage”.
- Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has dismissed what he called “mixed” signals from Trump, saying there can be no talks until Tehran’s conditions are met.
- The deputy governor of Iran’s Hormozgan province says a drone attacked two fishing boats in the Gulf off the port of Kargan, near Larak Island, prompting search and rescue operations to locate missing fishermen.
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says US sanctions aim to cause the social collapse of Iran, accusing certain Iranians abroad of aligning with Tehran’s enemies to stoke discord.
- Iran’s nuclear chief has been blocked from attending the annual General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna after US opposition.
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US senator slams Trump for blaming Ukraine for record diesel prices
US Senator Chuck Schumer has hit back at President Donald Trump, accusing him of blaming Ukraine rather than “his war with Iran” for record-high US diesel prices.
“Trump’s newest LIE: Somehow, Ukraine is responsible for diesel prices hitting a record high. Americans know it’s Trump and his war with Iran that’s driving up costs. No amount of Trump’s finger-pointing and lies can erase his disaster of an economy,” Schumer wrote on X.
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On July 8, 2026, Russia has officially banned all diesel exports in a bid to secure its domestic fuel market following highly destructive Ukrainian drone strikes on its energy infrastructure. The ban is scheduled to remain in place through the end of July.
On July 30, 2026, Russia had announced that it extends diesel, gasoline export bans until end of January 2027.
Trump is a dangerous liar.
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Oil climbs as Saudi pipeline outage, attacks heighten supply worries
Oil prices continue to rise as concerns over supply disruptions persist after attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure left its East-West pipeline offline and cast doubt on efforts to ease shipping risks in the Gulf.
Brent crude futures rose $1.37, or 1.3 percent, to $107.05 a barrel at 04:06 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.53, or 1.51 percent, at $102.92.
“Oil traders are treating every fresh attack or infrastructure hit as incremental supply risk, while staying highly sensitive to any sign that the East-West pipeline or Hormuz flows could normalise,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to fewer than 10 transits a day over the weekend – from a 10-day average of 14 – raising concerns over a route that typically carried about one-fifth of global oil supplies before the US-Israel war on Iran began on February 28.
Saudi Arabia could begin to exhaust oil available for export within days unless it restores operations on the East-West pipeline, potentially removing as much as 4 percent of global oil supply from the market, according to buyers and traders.
“Plenty of uncertainty remains over the extent of damage and the duration of the outage for the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Prices are likely to remain well supported until we get clarity,” ING analysts said in a note.
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ExxonMobil executive says Middle East LNG disruption will be short term
An ExxonMobil executive says disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Middle East will be short-term, noting that the region has a long history of reliability and providing additional supplies during crises.
“We’re in a situation today which we believe is short-term in nature … but you’ll come back to the importance of where the Middle East sits in the long term, and that, from our perspective, has not changed,” Andrew Barry, chairman of LNG market development at ExxonMobil, said at the Gastech 2026 conference in Bangkok.
The conflict has prevented Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from exporting most of their LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global supplies previously passed, driving up prices and curbing demand globally.
Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, estimates that about 36 million tons of LNG supply from the Middle East has been lost so far this year.
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Saudi export disruptions drive some physical oil cargoes above $130 a barrel
Prices for some physical oil cargoes in Europe have topped $130 a barrel, as tensions in the Middle East fester and a key Saudi pipeline remains offline since an attack last week, according to trade sources cited by Reuters, approaching record highs seen in April.
Saudi Arabia has suspended late-September cargo shipments to European buyers after an attack on its East-West Pipeline last week forced it to cancel loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
North Sea oil is being viewed as a potential alternative to Saudi crude, but according to LSEG data, North Sea Forties crude has jumped to $136.75 a barrel, nearing an all-time high from April, at the height of the US-Israel war on Iran.
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US government watchdog confirms hit to weapons stockpiles
A US government watchdog report released on Monday officially confirms that the military is facing strategic inventory shortfalls and severe supply bottlenecks for advanced weapons following months of direct war with Iran.
The joint assessment, compiled by inspectors general from the Defense Department, State Department and USAID, offers Washington’s first official accounting of critical munitions depletion alongside extensive physical damage to American assets across the Middle East.
According to expert estimates cited in the report, it will take defence contractors up to three years to restore advanced missile and interceptor stockpiles to pre-war levels.
The report also details widespread physical losses, revealing that Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of structures across US bases in eight countries: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan. Dozens of American aircraft and drones were also damaged or destroyed in the strikes.
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The first reports about depletion of US munition stockpile emerged in March 2026.
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Congressional Budget Office says Iran war has severely depleted US missile interceptors
The United States has used between half and two-thirds of its inventory of several key missile-defence interceptors amid operations in the Middle East, with the war on Iran accelerating the depletion, Reuters reports, citing the Congressional Budget Office.
The estimate covers Patriot, THAAD, SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors. The federal agency said rebuilding those stockpiles could take at least five years, even if production rates increase.
According to Reuters, the office estimated that replacing missile-defence interceptors would cost about $13.1bn, part of a wider $21.7bn bill for replenishing munitions. Another $7.3bn would be needed to replace land-attack cruise missiles.
The Congressional Budget Office, which provides cost analyses for US lawmakers, said the depletion leaves fewer interceptors available for a potential future conflict. Reuters noted that the calculation is an estimate because the Defence Department does not publicly disclose the size of its interceptor inventories.
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Hormuz shipping traffic declines and crude prices climb as Middle East attacks intensify
The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz continued to dwindle in the wake of intensifying attacks in the Middle East, shipping data showed.
Commodity vessel transits through Hormuz totaled four on Monday, down from 10 the previous day, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Reuters on Tuesday.
The Hormuz Strait Monitor showed at least 436 vessels were at a standstill.
The recent attacks on shipping in Hormuz and Saudi energy infrastructure pushed crude prices up, with Brent crude futures rising $1.24, or 1.18 percent, to $106.93 a barrel as of 00:26 GMT.
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US military says 103 commercial ships redirected in Iran blockade
US Central Command says it has redirected 103 commercial vessels in its blockade of Iran to date.
In a social media post, CENTCOM said it is ensuring compliance with the US blockade on Iranian maritime trade in the Strait of Hormuz.
The updated tally from the US military added four vessels since its last update on Friday.
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Vessel struck by unknown projectile in Strait of Hormuz: UKMTO
A vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has said.
The UKMTO said it received a delayed report of the incident from a verified source, according to the Reuters news agency.
No damage or environmental impact has been reported, UKMTO added.
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Two missing after attack on oil tanker off Oman
An oil tanker is being towed to an Omani port after a fire broke out in its engine room following an attack off the coast of Oman, according to Reuters, citing Omani officials.
Oman said 23 crew members had been evacuated from the tanker, Elgaia, while two others remain missing.
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IRGC claims downing of advanced MQ-1 drone over Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says an advanced MQ-1 drone was intercepted and destroyed in the skies west of the Strait of Hormuz.
In a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, the military branch announced that the aircraft was targeted on Monday by an advanced air defence system operated by the IRGC aerospace force under the control of the country’s integrated air defence network.
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IRGC says it downed second MQ-1 drone near Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has shot down a second MQ-1 drone in airspace east of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the semi-official Mehr News Agency.
The IRGC said it was the second such incident since dawn on Tuesday.
Mehr said the latest incident brings to four the number of US-developed MQ-1s, mainly used for surveillance and reconnaissance, that Iranian forces have downed in recent days during operations in and around the strait.
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IRGC downs another MQ-1 drone over Hormuz: Iranian media
Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reports that the IRGC has shot down another US-developed MQ-1 drone over Hormuz.
It is the third such drone to be downed in the area today, according to the agency.
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Dozens of aircraft, hundreds of buildings: US loss to Iran attacks revealed
A Pentagon watchdog has revealed the United States lost dozens of aircraft and hundreds of structures used by the US were damaged or destroyed by Iranian attacks during the conflict.
The report published on Monday by the Department of Defense inspector general offers the first official account of the losses Washington has incurred in the war from February 28 to June 30.
Throughout the war – beginning with the US-Israel attacks on Iran in late February – Tehran has routinely bombed US bases and assets in the Gulf region. For most of those attacks, Gulf countries and Washington said the incoming strikes had been intercepted and thwarted.
But the Pentagon’s report paints a picture of significant damage and losses running into millions of dollars to US forces.
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The report is evidence that supports Iran's claim that Tehran targets US assets.
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Iran’s Foreign Minister says damage to US bases ‘the tip of the iceberg’
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said claims that Iran is defenceless against US forces are “fiction”.
In a post on X, Araghchi shared a US government document highlighting US military reports that Iranian strikes had “damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures” at US bases in the region.
“That’s just the tip of the iceberg,” said Araghchi. “We’ll reveal it all in due course.”
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US seeks forfeiture of $61m in crypto currency tied to Iran oil sales
The United States Justice Department has filed a civil forfeiture claim for $61m in crypto currency linked to the Iranian military’s black-market oil sales, according to the US Attorney’s Office.
The Justice Department accused Tehran of relying on illicit “sales of sanctioned crude oil to fund its military and foster terrorism in the Middle East and around the world”, it said in a press release.
Further, it said Iran used a network of crypto currency actors in China and elsewhere to launder more than $1.5bn in illicit oil money.
“Today’s complaint demonstrates the FBI’s ability to follow the money, root out illicit schemes, and halt the stream of crypto currency to any government attempting to evade sanctions or committing terrorist activities,” FBI Assistant Director in Charge James Barnacle Jr said.
“By cutting off funds raised by the black market sale of crude oil, the Iranian military and terrorists are weakened. The FBI will not relent in its resolve to drain the funds from dangerous foreign actors.”
The forfeiture claim is the latest in a series of legal actions taken by US prosecutors against Iran in recent months, as fighting between the two countries continued.
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Bessent says US had positive private conversations with China on financial links with Iran
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that Washington has had positive private conversations with Beijing on its financial links with Tehran.
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will continue discussions on Iran at their summit in Washington, DC, later in September, Bessent told a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee.
“We have seen forward-facing statements from United Arab Emirates to cut off Iran finances,” Bessent also told lawmakers.
Bessent announced an economic pressure campaign against Iran last month aimed at Tehran’s financial interests worldwide, saying yesterday that his department will continue to “target and disrupt those who provide material, technological, or financial support that allows the Iranian regime to sustain its terrorist enterprise”.
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Pakistan, IAEA discuss regional developments, importance of MoU implementation
Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar has discussed the “evolving regional situation” in a phone call with Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
The two officials also “agreed that implementation of the Islamabad MoU remained the best course of action to defuse tensions”, with Grossi offering to provide any technical support needed to ensure its implementation, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement shared on social media.
The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding was supposed to kick-start a 60-day period for peace talks between Iran and the US and included provisions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has become a major flashpoint in the war.
However, the agreement expired in mid-August amid mutual accusations of non-compliance. While regional mediators like Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to revive discussions, the agreement’s enforcement remains frozen, with Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz restricted pending renewed US commitments.
Ishaq Dar “reaffirmed Pakistan’s enduring commitment to advancing the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and to respecting international law and treaties”, continued the statement.
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Iran nuclear agency defends underground facilities citing threats
Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization has defended the country’s decision to build nuclear sites underground, saying it was “natural” considering the threat from foreign military attacks.
“Although Iran’s sensitive nuclear facilities are located underground, they have always been subject to inspection and IAEA inspectors have been present there,” said the agency’s spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, referring to the UN nuclear watchdog.
“Military attacks, sabotage and terror cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear knowledge and industry,” he added.
Last week, the IAEA accused Iran of failing to comply with its nuclear nonproliferation commitments and referred it to the UN Security Council.
The UN watchdog has not had access to key nuclear facilities in Iran since the US and Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran in June 2025, which included attacks on key Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Iranian officials have said they are unable to provide inspectors safe access to the facilities due to the ongoing conflict.
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Iran’s Araghchi to visit China tomorrow
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will visit Beijing and meet his counterpart, Wang Yi, as the war drags on and global economic fallout reverberates.
The ministers, who last met in July, will hold talks on Wednesday in the capital, China’s Foreign Ministry said, as Beijing seeks to mediate an end to the crippling US-Israel war on Iran.
Wang and Araghchi also attended the BRICS summit in the Indian capital, New Delhi, over the weekend and were seen having a brief conversation.
China is a major importer of Iranian and Middle East oil, so its economy could come under strain from the disruption caused by Tehran’s Hormuz blockade and the US naval siege on Iran.
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Iran’s foreign minister travels to Beijing
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday, his second visit to the Chinese capital since the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February.
The trip comes shortly ahead of a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington later in September.
China has presented itself as a neutral party seeking an end to the conflict.
Analysts have pointed out that while China wants to see an end to a war that has brought tumult to financial and energy markets, it has traditionally avoided entangling itself in foreign conflicts and potentially failed diplomatic initiatives.
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Turkey says attacks in the Gulf harm peace efforts
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan says reciprocal attacks in the Gulf are affecting peace efforts to end the US-Iran war.
He called for an immediate stop to the attacks and said Ankara also values the stability of its neighbor Iran.
Fidan added freedom of passage should be allowed in the Strait of Hormuz and the pre-war status quo should be reinstated. Turkey is in touch with all involved parties to resolve the crisis, he added.
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Rubio discusses efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region during phone call with Omani FM
Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi and his US counterpart Marco Rubio have discussed the latest regional developments in a phone call, the Oman News Agency has reported.
The talks included efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region, it said.
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Rubio, Omani foreign minister discuss Iranian attacks and Hormuz shipping
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi about shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks in the waterway and against regional countries, according to a State Department readout.
Rubio “acknowledged Oman’s important role in de-escalation in the region and condemned recent Iranian attacks on commercial ships and countries in the region,” the statement said, adding that Rubio “reiterated the United States’ commitment to ensuring that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon and to freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”
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US says Iran ‘unsuccessfully’ attempted to seize a US unmanned vessel
United States Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins tells Al Jazeera that Iran unsuccessfully attempted to seize a US unmanned surface vessel.
“Iranian small boats recently attempted to take possession of a US unmanned surface vessel,” he said.
Hawkins said that CENTCOM forcefully responded to the Iranian attempt, adding that “The surface drone remains under our operational control.”
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Analysts warn of double-digit oil price hikes as Saudi pipeline outage lingers
Oil markets are trying to determine when Saudi Arabia’s damaged pipeline can resume operations, with any delay in reopening the Strait of Hormuz adding further strain to an already “very exposed” market, according to Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at the research firm Rystad Energy.
The blockade puts a significant amount of Saudi production at risk over what Shah described as a “five-week prospective timeline”. Loadings at Saudi Arabia’s western ports, where the East-West pipeline terminates, have averaged around 2 to 3 million barrels a day over the past week, he said. That volume is now at risk, with much of the supply rerouted north through the Suez Canal due to Houthi restrictions on Saudi oil transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Roughly 2 million barrels of crude a day are still moving through Bab al-Mandeb, Shah said, though “a lot of that is Russian volume”. He warned that if this crude fails to reach its destination in the coming weeks, “we’re definitely looking at additional price strikes on the products market” as refineries face both processing constraints and crude shortages.
Shah said the market “is not fully pricing all of this risk”, partly because traders expect Saudi Arabia’s pipeline to return to service faster than currently estimated. Even so, he projects “double-digit” price increases relative to current Brent and WTI levels with Dubai crude — “a key benchmark” — seeing further upside.
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Refining bottlenecks, Russian drone strikes tighten global diesel supply
Diesel prices across the Atlantic basin and North America are elevated due to the “exposed state” of the refining market’s structure, according to Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy. Shah noted the region “lost a lot of capacity” in complex and semi-complex refining, with the crude slate processed “not fantastic” for maximizing diesel yields.
Middle East tensions have compounded the issue, Shah said, disrupting flows of “the correct quality of crude” for global refining as Asian refiners “have cut refinery runs,” further limiting diesel exports onto the market.
Separately, the war in Ukraine has driven “a huge amount of drone strikes” on Russian energy infrastructure, removing an estimated 700,000 to 800,000 barrels a day of supply compared with earlier-year projections, Shah said. He added this is “tightening the diesel complex globally” as reduced supply meets continued demand growth.
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Ukraine has been attacking Russian oil facilities since Putin's resumption of his 2014 war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022. We believe that the oil market attempts to exploit this war.
Then this:
On July 8, 2026, Russia has officially banned all diesel exports in a bid to secure its domestic fuel market following highly destructive Ukrainian drone strikes on its energy infrastructure. The ban is scheduled to remain in place through the end of July.
On July 30, 2026, Russia had announced that it extends diesel, gasoline export bans until end of January 2027.
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Iran war to drive US inflation up 0.5 percent in first three months of 2027: Congressional Budget Office
The US’s war on Iran, which began on February 28, has so far cost the country $38bn, with the tally expected to increase by $3bn per month, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan budget analysis agency.
Most of the costs stem from the rapid drawdown of munitions, said the budget office, estimating it could take five years to replenish US stockpiles.
The war is expected to cause inflation to jump 0.5 percent in the first three months of 2027, it added.
The war has depleted US munitions stockpiles and driven up energy prices, raising concerns about the country’s ability to respond to other potential conflicts and adding pressure on an already stretched federal budget.
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Us congressman files articles of impeachment against Hegseth over Iran, Yemen and boat strikes
Outgoing US Representative Thomas Massie has filed eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for alleged “high crimes and misdemeanors” related to his management of various conflicts including Iran.
Massie’s assertions, which he read aloud in the House of Representatives, included Hegseth’s alleged waging war against Iran without Congressional authorization, failure to minimize civilian casualties in strikes on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean and execution of illegal orders in Yemen.
The impeachment resolution is unlikely to pass in the Republican-controlled House but could force a vote that may force some Republicans up for reelection in November to weigh in on the controversial Defense Secretary.
Massie, a rare Republican critic of Trump, the war against Iran and US assistance to Israel, is due to leave Congress after he lost his primary in May to a candidate who received millions of dollars from pro-Trump and pro-Israel lobby groups.
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Strait of Hormuz, other strategic waterways should not be ‘bargaining chips’: analyst
Mohammed al-Hashemi, director of the Doha-based Middle East Insights Institute, said straits and other strategic waterways should not be used as bargaining chips in international conflicts.
“Passages can be protected, first, by removing them from the bargaining table and not accepting those geographical areas, or even civilian facilities, as bargaining chips,” al-Hashemi said.
Meanwhile, the shutdown of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia following an attack threatens up to 5 percent of the global oil supply.
“At the moment, reopening [the East-West pipeline] becomes a concession, which means that closure would be used as a strategy, and this is something that shouldn’t be accepted in general,” al-Hashemi said.
The US cannot win its war on Iran by force, al-Hashemi added, predicting the conflict will end at the negotiating table.
“Today, as we can see in the case of Hormuz, nation-states start to utilise [strategic waterways] as a bargaining chip. Bab al-Mandeb is a bit different; it’s a proxy, but tomorrow we might even see that somewhere in the world terrorist groups are going to use it, and non-state actors will be using them.”
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Vance says Iran war to enter ‘much different phase’ in coming months
US Vice President JD Vance says the war with Iran will enter a “much different phase in a couple of months”, describing Washington’s next objective as preventing Tehran from rebuilding its military capabilities.
“We can’t predict the future, but I think the president is right to say that this thing will enter a much different phase in a couple of months,” Vance told the New York Post in an interview.
Vance said the US considered the first phase of the conflict complete, describing its objectives as destroying Iran’s nuclear program, conventional military and ability to project power.
“And then the second phase of this is ensure that they’re not able to rebuild and try to maintain as much global stability in the wake of that,” he said.
Vance also said Iran was still occasionally targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Several explosions heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island: state media
Several explosions were heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, according to local sources cited by IRNA, the Iranian state news agency.
The sounds seemed to come from the sea, IRNA said, adding that no official sources had commented on the source of the reported explosions.
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