EBRD cuts growth forecasts as conflict and energy shocks hit Iraq and Lebanon
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has cut its growth forecasts as the war drives an energy shock that is hitting Iraq’s oil-dependent economy particularly hard.
The EBRD now expects growth across its regions to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025.
Iraq’s economy is projected to contract by 12 percent this year, with the risk of a deeper downturn if export disruptions persist through the end of the year. “The problem in Iraq is disruption to exports,” EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik told the AFP news agency.
Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economy is expected to contract by 5 percent this year due to ongoing conflict with Israel.
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