• IRGC chief Major-General Ahmad Vahidi says that “no extra-regional power has the right to threaten, maintain a hegemonic presence, or interfere” in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says diplomatic efforts to achieve Iran’s national interests are “seriously” being pursued at the international level as Tehran seeks to end Western sanctions and strengthen media engagement.
• Oman’s Maritime Security Centre says it has evacuated an injured crew member by helicopter after a fire broke out on board the commercial vessel John K off the coast of Al Batinah South Governorate.

US war on Iran

US isolated in its war on Iran, deputy parliament speaker claims

Hamidreza Haji-Babaei, the parliament speaker’s deputy, says the United States has failed to rally its allies in the war on Iran, adding that it stands alone in its pursuit of its goals, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.

He was quoted as saying that Trump’s recent threats against Iran are evidence of “American desperation”.

Any country with actual power to take action does not need to resort to threats, he added.

Senior IRGC commander says US miscalculated Iran’s resilience

The United States made a “strategic mistake” by assuming Iran would collapse following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to a senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, the IRGC’s political affairs deputy, said Washington misjudged Iran’s stability, and added that the US calculation failed to reflect “the realities of Iranian society”.

Washington has exerted continuous pressure on Tehran since before Donald Trump’s presidency, but those efforts failed due to Iran’s “steadfastness and firm response”, Javani was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency.

US aware Iran ground offensive would be disastrous: IRGC adviser

The US will suffer heavy casualties if it launches a ground offensive in Iran, says General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, a senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), according to the country’s Fars news agency.

“They will suffer so many casualties that they will be forced to raise the white flag of surrender,” Naqdi said during a news conference, adding that the US is aware that such an operation would be disastrous.

Oman foreign minister arrives in Pakistan for talks

Omani FM Badr Albusaidi has arrived in Pakistan for a two-day visit as tensions over the US-Israel war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to reverberate around the globe.

Albusaidi, visiting at the invitation of his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar, was received by senior Pakistani officials in the capital, Islamabad, according to a statement from Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry.

The eighth session of the Pakistan-Oman Joint Ministerial Commission will also be held in Islamabad during the visit, it said.

IRAN-US talks

Trump says Iran wants deal but ‘doesn’t know how’

Trump says Tehran wants to reach a deal with Washington but doesn’t know how to do so.

“They want to make a deal, but they don’t know how to. They don’t know how to,” the US president said at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio.

Trump reiterated that the US could not allow Iran, which he described as “the number one state sponsor of terror”, to acquire a nuclear weapon.

“Right now, they have no navy, they have no air force, they have no anti-aircraft, they have the worst inflation of any country anywhere in the world, they have no money,” he said.

Trump also predicted that oil prices would fall sharply, saying, “Oil is going to be dropping like a rock.”

His remarks came as he campaigned ahead of the November 3 congressional mid-term elections.

US official says Tehran must choose between talks and facing consequences

• Pigott said that US President Trump continues to prefer a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran, adding that Tehran must choose between negotiations and facing further consequences.
• He reiterated that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon and that Trump intends to achieve that objective one way or another.
• He claimed oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are now exceeding pre-conflict levels, excluding Iranian oil, which remains subject to a US blockade.
• He said Washington has been fulfilling its commitments to Saudi Arabia and will continue to live up to its commitments to its ally amid escalating Houthi attacks on the country. However, he declined to preview any potential US action.
• Pigott categorically rejected reports that Iran transferred $200m to Hezbollah last month and claimed the group’s remaining revenue comes from drug trafficking and collaboration with cartels, rather than Tehran’s financial support.

Nuclear issue

Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s navy says tanker damaged in ‘restricted’ zone in Hormuz

The Iranian navy says that an oil tanker sustained damage and caught fire while attempting to pass through a “restricted zone” in the Strait of Hormuz with its tracking systems turned off.

The Iranian navy statement, quoted by state media, said that an oil tanker sailing east of the Strait of Hormuz was damaged and caught fire while trying to traverse a “restricted” area after having deactivated its tracking systems.

The statement noted that the tanker in question had been detected by the Iranian navy, but no information was provided regarding how the vessel sustained the damage.

The statement further indicated that the Iranian navy has adopted a “new deployment posture” in the regions east of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and is monitoring maritime traffic and the activities of foreign entities “continuously and in real-time”.

Additionally, a call was issued to all vessels in the region to keep their electronic systems active in accordance with international regulations and to coordinate with the Iranian army to ensure safe passage, the statement said.

Iran, Oman close to implementing temporary Hormuz passage deal: Iranian foreign ministry

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says Tehran and Muscat have continued consultations to establish safe routes for commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after reaching an understanding on a temporary safe passage route, official Iranian news agency IRNA reports.

According to IRNA, Baghaei made the comments during an interview with Tunisian newspaper Al-Chourouk, saying that “some implementation details” were still under discussion with Oman.

He stressed that the bilateral understanding on a safe route should not be confused with the reopening or the overall status of the waterway, noting that any sustainable, long-term mechanism for managing and securing the passage still needs to be looked into.

Regarding the possibility of renewed hostilities with the US, Baghaei said Iran is prepared to mobilise all available capabilities to counter hostile actions.

US monitoring Iran’s ‘unjustified aggression’ against vessels in Hormuz

The United States has warned Iran it will retaliate against any attacks on US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a US official says.

“We continue to confront Iranian hostile actions by countering the attacks and ensuring the flow of maritime navigation,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The official said the US is closely monitoring suspected Iranian attacks on shipping in Hormuz, calling it “unjustified aggression”.

Another vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency says a tanker has been hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.

The statement did not provide details and said authorities are investigating.

Strikes around the strategic Strait of Hormuz have picked up again as mediated efforts to end the US-Israel war on Iran remain deadlocked.

At least a dozen ships were attacked over the week ending on October 5, the highest number since the war began. At least one was hit off the north coast of Qatar, signalling that the danger extends beyond the Hormuz passage as Iran and the US vie for control.

Oil & Oil markets

Oil prices edge lower after surging nearly $2

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday, pulling back after a near-$2 rally in the previous session as market participants weighed potential supply disruptions from attacks in Saudi Arabia against the prospect of increased Russian diesel exports.

Brent crude futures were down 61 cents, or 0.57 percent, at $106.04 a barrel as of 00:00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 47 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $93.27.

The dip follows Monday’s session, when Brent crude settled at $106.65 a barrel, marking its highest finish since September 15.

Crude prices drop further, heading for first daily decline in a week

Oil prices further extended their decline on Tuesday, putting them on track for their first daily drop in nearly a week as traders weigh supply risks from attacks on Saudi Arabia against the prospect of increased Russian diesel exports.

Brent crude futures fell $1.30, or 1.2 percent, to $105.35 a barrel as of 03:29 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.25, or 1.3 percent, to $92.49.

Both benchmarks had risen nearly $2 a barrel in the previous session, with Brent settling at its highest level since September 15.

US arbitrary sanctionism

Under modern international law, the legality of unilateral sanctions is inherently tied to whether the state imposing them is responding to an initial illegal act. Because the attacking belligerent is the original violator of the prohibition on the use of force (Article 2(4) of the UN Charter), any "arbitrary sanctions" it levies cannot be legally justified.

Iran claims export of more than five million tons of petroleum products despite US blockade

The Hormozgan Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) reports the export of more than five million tons of petroleum products from Shahid Rajaee Port, Iran’s largest commercial port, in the first half of the year.

Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency quoted PMO Director General Hossein Abbasnejad as saying: “Despite the unjust war and intensified economic restrictions … 5,140,000 tons of petroleum products have been exported from this port.”

The United States imposed a military blockade on Iranian posts in April after talks in Pakistan failed to yield an agreement to end the US-Israel war on Iran.

Last week, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Iran against individuals, networks, and 17 vessels for transporting Iranian crude, oil products, and petrochemicals, according to the US Treasury Department.

Iran suspends vehicle imports to prioritise essential goods

Iran has temporarily suspended vehicle imports by hoteliers and Iranians living abroad as part of efforts to conserve foreign currency for essential goods and medicine, according to government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani.

“Due to the country’s special circumstances, the allocation of foreign currency to all non-priority matters has been suspended by order of the president,” Mohajerani said, according to the Tasnim news agency.

She said the suspension covers all types of vehicles, including vans and specialised vehicles.

“At present, all of the government’s efforts and foreign-currency resources are focused on supplying essential goods, medicine, and vital needs to maintain the dynamism of the country’s economy,” she added.

Sanctions cut Iran off from global banking, forcing risky workarounds

International sanctions have made it increasingly difficult to move money in and out of Iran.

Now, with conflict and economic uncertainty mounting, individuals and businesses are turning to costly and risky workarounds.

Iran needs long-term plan for US ‘economic war’: Ghalibaf

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, says Iran must prepare for the continuation of the “economic war” imposed on it by the United States.

Speaking to a joint meeting of the country’s economic coordination committee, Ghalibaf said there is a need for consensus to plan how US sanctions against the country would impact economic conditions.

“The most important priority for decision-makers is the livelihood of the people and the armed forces”, he said, adding the government must ensure that the financial situation of citizens is “the last to be affected by the pressure of war and sanctions”.

(delusional) US politics

Trump says Iran wants deal but ‘doesn’t know how’

Trump says Tehran wants to reach a deal with Washington but doesn’t know how to do so.

“They want to make a deal, but they don’t know how to. They don’t know how to,” the US president said at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio.

Trump reiterated that the US could not allow Iran, which he described as “the number one state sponsor of terror”, to acquire a nuclear weapon.

“Right now, they have no navy, they have no air force, they have no anti-aircraft, they have the worst inflation of any country anywhere in the world, they have no money,” he said.

Trump also predicted that oil prices would fall sharply, saying, “Oil is going to be dropping like a rock.”

His remarks came as he campaigned ahead of the November 3 congressional mid-term elections.

Trump downplays reports of Russian, Chinese aid to Iran

Trump has dismissed claims that China and Russia are offering substantial support to Iran, characterizing any potential assistance as minimal at most.

Writing on Truth Social, Trump pushed back against critics, saying he did not believe Moscow or Beijing were aiding Tehran as both had “too much to lose”.

He added that Washington “would know about it, and know about it very fast” if any assistance was being provided.

Trump says US may have gone ‘too far’ in targeting Iran’s leadership

Trump has suggested the US may have gone too far in targeting Iran’s leadership, saying Washington is struggling to identify officials with whom it can negotiate.

“We might have gone too far with the leaders because we don’t know who the hell we’re dealing with any more,” the US president said at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio.

“Nobody wants to be the president of Iran,” he added, claiming that potential candidates were unwilling to take the position. Masoud Pezeshkian, however, has been Iranian president since July 2024.

“We’re having a hard time figuring out who the hell to deal with, to be honest with you. I think we went too far,” Trump said.

Trump also reiterated his claim that Iran had lost its air force and all 159 of its ships, which he said were now “resting beautifully in the bottom of the sea”.

His remarks come amid continued attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf region. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has recorded at least 19 attacks on vessels since October 1.

If he claims not to know with whom in Iran the US (read: Trump) is dealing with, then why do they know from whom they received messages and to whom they are sending messages via de mediators?

Trump says he doesn’t believe China and Russia aiding Iran ‘at all’

US President Trump has told critics he doesn’t believe China and Russia are helping Iran “at all”.

In a post on his Truth Social account, Trump wrote: “I see so many comments from the Radical Left Morons and Lunatics that China and Russia are helping the ‘wonderful’ Islamic Republic of Iran.

“If they are, it’s at a very low level, but I don’t believe they are at all.” Trump added that both countries “have too much to lose, and we would know about it, and know about it very fast!”

RAF airbase Fairfield, England

UK blames Iran for airbase plot, sanctions two Iranian nationals

The United Kingdom’s prime minister, Andy Burnham, has said that a suspected plot against a Royal Air Force (RAF) base used by the United States in the town of Fairford was “almost certainly” directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The allegation on Monday came as the UK announced sanctions on two Iranians over alleged “hostile activity”, raising the diplomatic stakes over the largely unexplained incident for which Tehran has denied any responsibility.

“We will not tolerate these threats on our soil,” Burnham told parliament, promising that the government “will crack down on Iran’s use of criminal networks, using our full range of powers to target them and their funding streams”.

He added that the UK will “bring further sanctions to restrict the capacity of Iran and the IRGC to do us harm”.

The incident near the airbase in southern England occurred in the early hours of September 27, when five British men in their 20s were arrested on suspected “terrorism” and explosives offences.

Iran ramping up attempts to hit harder targets in UK, warns MI5 chief

Iran is ramping up attempts to hit harder targets, such as military sites in the United Kingdom, the UK’s domestic spy chief has warned.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Monday that Tehran was “almost certainly” behind a suspected plot against RAF Fairford last month, which had been used by US bombers to carry out strikes on Iran.

In his annual speech on the wide-ranging threats to the UK, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said he could not speak about the Fairford incident because of an ongoing investigation, but added that there had been a major shift this year in “Iranian ambitions to come at harder targets, like military sites”.

“The RAF Fairford incident … is not unique. There have been other examples, not just in the UK but around the world,” he said.

Iran summons UK envoy over ‘baseless claims’ on suspected RAF Fairford plot

A statement by the Iranian foreign ministry says the British ambassador to Tehran, Hugo Shorter, was summoned over claims linking Tehran to a suspected plot against RAF Fairford air base in Britain.

The envoy was summoned by Alireza Yousefi, the Iranian assistant foreign minister and director-general for Western Europe, the statement cited by the Tasnim news agency said.

Iran’s strong protest regarding “the UK’s irresponsible and destructive approach towards Iran was conveyed” to the ambassador.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham claimed on Monday that the suspected plot targeting the RAF Fairford air base was “highly likely” to have been coordinated in Iran and almost certainly directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran’s ambassador to Britain, Seyed Ali Mousavi, denied any Iranian role, saying Tehran was willing to cooperate with British authorities in investigating the issue.

Other

IMF forecasts Middle East economic contraction as war disrupts trade

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sharply downgraded its 2026 growth outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, forecasting a 0.3 percent contraction compared with the 1.9 percent growth projected six months ago.

The IMF cited the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to oil production, shipping, and exports caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain are expected to experience double-digit economic contractions this year, followed by strong recoveries in 2027 if production and trade routes return to normal.

The IMF also forecast Iran’s economy shrinking by 7.6 percent. Saudi Arabia’s GDP is expected to contract by 3.3 percent, and the UAE’s by 3.9 percent.

Oman is the only Gulf country expected to record positive growth this year, at 2.4 percent.

Despite the downturn, the IMF anticipates a significant regional recovery in 2027, assuming the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil exports resume.

Top EU diplomat Kallas condemns Iran’s ‘hostile activities beyond the Middle East’

The European Union’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas has condemned “Iran’s hostile activities” after British authorities concluded that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was almost certainly behind a threat against the RAF Fairford airbase.

“Iran’s campaign of intimidation and chaos extends well beyond the Middle East. I join my counterparts in condemning Iran’s hostile activities,” Kallas wrote in a post on X.

“The EU has already designated the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation. We have sanctioned Iranian officials for undermining freedom of navigation and serious human rights violations. The UK is a close partner, and we stand firmly with them,” she wrote.

Merz urges Iran to ‘stop destabilizing the region’ during call with Saudi crown prince

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to his spokesman.

Merz and Mohammed bin Salman discussed the latest attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis, the situation in the Middle East, and ways to end the regional conflict, government spokesman Stefan Kornelius said.

“The chancellor condemned in the strongest possible terms the latest terrorist attacks carried out by the Iran-backed Houthis,” Kornelius said. “The chancellor and the crown prince agree that these attacks must cease immediately.”

He said the chancellor stressed that the maritime blockades imposed by Iran and the Houthis in the Strait of Hormuz and at Bab al-Mandeb must also end without delay.

“Iran must finally engage in serious negotiations and stop destabilising the region. At the same time, it must open the Strait of Hormuz permanently and without restriction and halt its military nuclear program,” he added.

Merz and Mohammed bin Salman also discussed the conflict’s impact on energy prices in Germany and ways to stabilise them.

Turkish and Iranian foreign ministers discuss war developments in call

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has held a phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, according to Turkey's Anadolu news agency.

Fidan and Araghchi discussed ways to tamp down escalating conflict in the Middle East, Anadolu, quoting unnamed Foreign Ministry sources, reported.

Under severe economic pressure from the US, Iran has accelerated overland trade with Turkiye as the blockade limits the vast majority of imports while cutting off oil and gas sales that largely keep its economy running.

Iran insists the US pressure will not change its stance in negotiations with Washington. Tehran wants the US blockade to end before it allows commercial shipping to flow again through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s grip has shaken global markets and oil prices.