• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says “there is no military solution” to the conflict with the US, but that Tehran remains ready to return to war if attacked.
• Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says Tehran has received a response from the US on its proposal to end the war but warns that the “era of wasting time and dictating unilateral demands are over”. He said the “Strait of Hormuz will not open until our seven conditions” are met.
• The United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency says a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging its engine room, while another off Yemen’s coast reported multiple explosions near the vessel.

US removes B-1 bombers from UK Fairford base

A Pentagon official has said that the US has removed all of its bomber aircraft from the UK’s Fairford airbase after five men were arrested on suspicion of plotting attacks on the facility.

“While operational security precluded us from confirming the movement of our assets and forces in real-time, we can acknowledge now that all U.S. bombers that were deployed to RAF Fairford have re-deployed to their home stations in the United States,” the official said.

“The Airmen that operate America’s bomber force, including B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s, remain ready to deliver precision global strike capabilities – including through operations that launch and recover from the continental United States – anywhere, anytime,” the official added.

The five men arrested near the base have been released on bail, and Iran has denied any involvement in the alleged plot. UK investigators discovered petrol in the men’s vans, but found no explosive devices. Still, officials in the UK say they remain under investigation.

US bombers at UK’s Fairford base were ‘out in the open’ and ‘vulnerable to drone attacks’

David Des Roches, a professor at the Thayer Marshall Institute, says the Pentagon’s decision to remove its B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford in the UK “should have been done a while ago”.

The base is at the centre of an alleged security incident in which five men were arrested nearby on suspicion of plotting an attack. Des Roches, a former Pentagon official, said the arrests “exposed a vulnerability” as the aircraft were “out in the open” and only about 300 yards (275 meters) from where the public could see them.

“So they were very vulnerable to, say, drone attacks or other kind of mortar attacks,” he said.

Des Roches said the US Air Force has been “very slow to learn the lessons” from the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet in 2025, when Kyiv claimed to have destroyed some 40 Russian military aircraft.

“We need to have overhead cover in some protection for these aircraft… Just a small drone or any kind of a drone with explosives on board could conceivably cause significant damage. We’ve seen that you can get to very close range of those,” he said.

Des Roches acknowledged that the deployment of the US bombers means “you lose a little bit of operational ability,” but said that given the threat seen at Fairford, “we should have had overhead cover for all of our aircraft, globally, years ago”.

IRGC commander claims US forces have ‘fled’ 1,000km from Iran’s borders

Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, a top IRGC commander, says Iranian forces have forced the US military to pull back some 1,000km (621 miles) from Iran’s borders.

“The Americans fled and moved more than 1,000km away from our borders. This was not their choice; it was due to the authority of the Islamic Republic and the authority of the IRGC Ground Force,” Fadavi said in a televised interview, according to Iran’s Press TV.

He claimed that, for the first time, no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or even the northern Indian Ocean, and said US warships are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks.

Fadavi’s claim comes as the US military continues to impose a punishing naval blockade on Iranian ports. US Central Command said last week that it has redirected 125 commercial vessels since July to “ensure strict compliance”.

Iran says oil flows through US-supervised route in Hormuz are ‘negligible’

Ali Fadavi, the IRGC commander has insisted in a televised interview that the Strait of Hormuz remained under Iran’s control and said the IRGC Navy has warned ships using the US-supervised southern route in the waterway that “their vessels may be targeted at any point”.

Fadavi added that only three to four million barrels of oil per day are now moving through the route, which hugs the coast of Oman, and dismissed the amount as “negligible” when compared with pre-war traffic.

He also rejected US threats of military action, saying Washington failed in Afghanistan and Iraq and will fail again.

The comments came amid reports that crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen to pre-war levels, with countries exporting an average of 18.5 million bpd in the last week of September, using transits via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, says there is no military solution to the conflict with the US, but warns that Tehran remains ready to return to war if attacked.

His comments come after Trump’s remarks that he is closing in on a decision about whether to resume strikes on Iran.

‘If a new war is launched against Iran, its fire will engulf everyone,’ army chief of staff warns

Major-General Ali Abdollahi, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, warns that any new war against Iran would spiral out of control and “engulf everyone”, according to the Fars News Agency.

He also said a statement by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran’s nuclear program has entered a military phase is “delusional”.

“Refrain from continuing to play the role of a wolf in sheep’s clothing and avoid making further baseless comments regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities,” Fars quoted him as saying.

“Be aware that if a new war is launched against Iran, its fire will engulf everyone.”

UN chief expected in Pakistan this week to discuss US-Iran mediation efforts

The UN says Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is travelling to Islamabad, where he’s expected to discuss Pakistan’s “diplomatic and mediation efforts” between Ian and the US.

Guterres is scheduled to arrive in the capital on Tuesday to meet senior government officials, including Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar, his spokesman said in a statement.

The visit will “be an opportunity” to discuss Islamabad’s “constructive role in supporting negotiations between the two countries”, the statement added.

Iranian minister visits Qatar as mediation continues to end US-Israel war

Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni has traveled to Doha at the invitation of his Qatari counterpart.

Tasnim news agency said Momeni is scheduled to hold talks with Interior Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani and other Qatari officials during the official visit.

Despite suffering repeated attacks after the US and Israel struck Iran, mediation efforts by Qatar are ongoing to restart talks between Tehran and Washington.

Last month, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani described the economic fallout from the US-Israel attack on Iran as “an earthquake” with “its shock waves” reaching far beyond the Middle East.

Iranian president says negotiating with the US is ‘meaningless’

Iran’s President Pezeshkian has told Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan that Tehran cannot trust the US because of its attacks during negotiations.

“Every time we come to the negotiating table, we are immediately faced with war”, Pezeshkian told Mirzoyan, who is in Tehran as part of an official visit, according to a report by Iran’s Fars news agency.

“So far, they have attacked us three times after talks, and this shows that they are not seeking dialogue. Rather, their goal is to overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“With an enemy that every day resorts to assassination, sanctions, pressure and threats, and that breaks its commitments, negotiations are meaningless.”

US missteps against Iran will lead to ‘bigger surprises’: Iranian security chief

Iran’s security chief Moshen Rezaei says US missteps against Iran have compounded its defeat in the region, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Rezaei, who is the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, says the next US mistake will lead to “new fronts and even bigger surprises” for the Americans.

Trump will not be ‘played’ by Iran: US official 

“President Trump will not be played by the Iranian regime”, unlike previous US presidents, a senior US official has said.

When asked about recent comments from Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf that the US must meet the seven demands made in the Islamabad MoU before the Strait of Hormuz can reopen, the senior administration official said that “President Trump holds all the cards and will do whatever is best for the United States”.

“The United States is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing”, the official, who wished to remain anonymous, said.

The official added that “the crushing sanctions and one of the most successful blockades in history have crippled Iran’s economy and has left Iran completely broke … their military was decimated by Operation Epic Fury”.

“The Hormuz Strait is open, and all water mines have been removed or detonated. Tens of millions of barrels of oil are escorted out of the strait every day,” the official claimed.

Trump says he’s ‘open to direct talks with Iran’

President Trump says he’s “always open to direct talks with Iran”.

In a conversation with reporters at the White House, Trump also spoke on the withdrawal of US bombers from the UK’s RAF Fairford base, saying, “There was a specific threat that prompted us to pull [the] bombers.”

UN chief expected in Pakistan this week to discuss US-Iran mediation efforts

The UN says Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is travelling to Islamabad, where he’s expected to discuss Pakistan’s “diplomatic and mediation efforts” between Iran and the US.

Guterres is scheduled to arrive in the capital on Tuesday to meet senior government officials, including PM Shehbaz Sharif and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar.

The visit will “be an opportunity” to discuss Islamabad’s “constructive role in supporting negotiations between the two countries”, the statement added.
 

Tanker turned back in Hormuz after being hailed by IRGC: UKMTO

An oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was hailed by Iran’s IRGC and instructed to turn back or risk being targeted.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said the incident occurred 20km (11 nautical miles) north of Khasab, Oman. The tanker’s captain complied with the IRGC’s order, the UKMTO said.

The incident occurred as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted. Iran in effect has blocked the strait after the US-Israel war began on February 28 and has frequently attacked commercial ships. Tehran said it now wants to charge commercial vessels for passage.

Crews battling engine room fire after tanker hit in Hormuz: UKMTO

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has received reports of a tanker being struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.

“The master of a tanker reports being struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire in the engine room of which the crew are fighting”, UKMTO said in a statement.

“There are no reported casualties or environmental impact at the time of this warning.”

Earlier today, the operations centre reported at least two other vessels being hit by unknown projectiles.

CENTCOM says redirected 130 commercial vessels as part of Iran blockade

US Central Command (CENTCOM) says it has redirected 130 commercial vessels “during strict enforcement of the ongoing US naval blockade against Iran” and “disabled three ships that refused to comply”.

“Over the past 12 weeks, CENTCOM has destroyed 13 commercial vessels that were violating the blockade or part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ multibillion-dollar shadow network,” it said on X.

Crude oil exports from Middle East exceed pre-war levels, data shows

Crude oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels in four of the seven days of the last week of September, Reuters reports, citing provisional data from the ship-tracking firm Kpler.

Reuters said crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, rising to between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd.

Exports had averaged 18 million bpd in the year before the US-Israel war on Iran began.

The seven-day moving average for crude exports was at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, the data showed. These include transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

The increase comes amid a spike in tanker attacks in the Middle East, including seven incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping intelligence firm Marisks. The UKMTO agency has also reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Global oil prices drop as crude exports from Middle East rise

Oil prices have dipped following reports that crude exports from the Middle East have risen above the levels from before the US-Israel war on Iran, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures fell 1 percent to $101.18 a barrel as of about 04:30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.12 a barrel, down 1.03 percent, a few hours earlier.

As we reported earlier, crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29.

Meanwhile, the G7 countries have agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from emergency reserves.

“That combination is enough to subdue prices for now even though the risks of further damage to energy infrastructure around the Gulf region haven’t gone away,” Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters.

Satellites spot 19 ship-to-ship transfers of oil, gas, refined products in one day

Ship-tracking firm TankerTrackers.com says satellite imagery showed at least 19 ship-to-ship transfers of oil and other energy products in the Gulf of Oman yesterday.

It said 11 of transfers involved crude oil, two involved liquified natural gas, and the rest were of refined products, including petrol and diesel.

Analysts have cited a surge in ship-to-ship transfers among the main reasons for the rebound of oil exports out of the Middle East despite the ongoing war and blockades by Iran and the US.

It involves the use of tankers that shuttle back and froth across the Strat of Hormuz to offload their cargo onto other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman.

US-sanctioned Iranian petrochemical producer reports $10bn in oil export revenues

A US-sanctioned Iranian petrochemical producer has generated $10bn in oil export revenues over the past two years, “having successfully navigated the constraints of the sanctions era and wartime conditions”, according to the Fars News Agency.

The Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Group (PGPIG), which is also a public holding company, submitted a report to the Iranian government that said the firm has entered a phase of “surging profitability and development”.

“Last year, the company’s net profit reached 187.5 trillion tomans [nearly $700m] – a 67.4 percent increase over the previous year – while production volume rose by 2 million tons compared to the prior year,” it said.

“During the critical period marked by imposed conflict and a naval blockade, and despite numerous challenges, the holding’s trade and export operations continued around the clock,” it said. “Over the past two years, nearly $10bn in export revenue generated by the holding’s subsidiaries was repatriated to the country through the established financial and banking system.”

In 2019, the US sanctioned the PGPIG for providing financial support for the economic arm of the IRGC, Iran’s elite military unit in charge of its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

US Treasury secretary claims Iran loaded no crude oil onto tankers last month

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Operation Economic Outcast, the plan to target Iran’s revenue from around the world, is delivering results.

In a post on X, Bessent claimed that the Iranian rial has plummeted to record lows and that Iran loaded no crude oil onto tankers last month.

Saudi Aramco CEO warns replenishing fuel supplies could take ‘years’

The ongoing global squeeze on crude oil and refined fuels is likely to worsen, the head of Saudi state oil giant Aramco says.

Refilling global stockpiles tapped under emergency measures could take two years, said Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser.

“Until Hormuz fully ⁠reopens and confidence returns, ⁠the crude reality is that pressure at both ends ⁠of the barrel will intensify,” Nasser told the Energy Intelligence conference in London.

“⁠Even then ⁠replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take up to two ‌years,” he added.

Trump blames political opponents, Russia-Ukraine war for fuel price rise

President Trump says the rising cost of fuel is no longer connected to the war on Iran and blames the Russia-Ukraine war and his political opponents for the spike.

“What’s driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait ‌of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Trump said it was due to “the word, ‘Refineries’, where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine, ⁠and where ours are ⁠being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats”.

Trump was ‘unprepared’ for Iran war, US senator says

US Democratic Senator Chris Murphy has criticized President Trump’s handling of the Iran war after visiting the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia.

In a video posted on his X account, Murphy, who is on a tour of US allies in the Middle East, said, “Today I saw in person the damage done to the US embassy in Riyadh.”

“More evidence of how unprepared Trump was for this war and how unprotected he left thousands of Americans in this region,” he said.

Murphy’s first stop was Qatar on October 3, where officials advised him to push for a diplomatic solution to end the war with Iran, according to US media reports.

Iran’s president nominates Mehrdad Akhlaghi as new defence minister

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has nominated Mehrdad Akhlaghi as the new minister of defence.

The semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that Akhlaghi previously served as the chief operating officer of Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization. Most recently, he served as a senior executive at the Defence Ministry.

Iran’s Defence Ministry has been temporarily led by several military leaders since Brigadier-General Aziz Nasirzadeh was assassinated at the start of the US-Israeli war.

Iran summons Norway’s ambassador over Starlink operations

Tehran has summoned Norway’s ambassador to protest Oslo’s “continued inaction” over “unauthorized” Starlink satellite internet operations inside Iranian territory, according to Iran’s Press TV.

Mohammad Hassannejad Pirkoohi, director general at Iran’s Foreign Ministry, summoned Ambassador Paal Bjornestad on Sunday to deliver an official note of protest, it reported.

During the meeting, Pirkoohi accused the US and Israel of systematically “abusing” Starlink, which is owned by American billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX, “to advance interventionist agendas” against Iran.

He said Norway has failed to meet its legal obligations as the registering state for Starlink services at the UN’s International Telecommunication Union (ITU). “Based on the decisions of the ITU’s Radio Regulations Board (RRB) in recent years, the Norwegian government is obligated to take the necessary measures to prevent unauthorized Starlink transmissions within Iran’s territory,” he said.

He added that Norway has ignored repeated Iranian requests “to stop the activities that compromise Iran’s national security and territorial sovereignty”.

US senator blames ‘Trump’s economy’ for squeezed budgets as midterms loom

Prominent Trump critic US Senator Elizabeth Warren has blamed the president for a tightening in consumer spending as Americans face ongoing economic impacts from the war on Iran.

Referencing a recent Bloomberg article, the Democrat wrote on X that “high prices and rising borrowing costs are squeezing family budgets, forcing more Americans to cut back on things like bowling and dining out.”

“This is Donald Trump’s economy,” Warren said.

With the midterm elections a month away, US consumers are feeling the effects of the prolonged war.

Petrol prices jumped to a national average of $4.27 a gallon (3.8 litres) last month, according to the American Automobile Association, up nearly 30 percent from a year ago. Trump’s approval ratings, meanwhile, have dropped into the low to mid-30s.

No conclusive ties to Iran in flydubai incident: Vance

US Vice President JD ⁠Vance says he has not seen anything conclusive connecting Iran to the flydubai attack.

Vance ⁠told reporters ⁠that the Trump administration was looking at flight procedures in the US after the events aboard Flight FZ1073 on September 30.

The UAE has described the attack on the aircraft as an attempted “terrorist” operation.

Trump says Iran responsible for Flydubai attack

Trump says he thinks Iran is responsible for the September 30 incident involving a Flydubai plane.

The US president contradicted an earlier statement made by Vice President JD Vance, who said there was so far no evidence connecting Tehran to the attack.