• A crude oil tanker has reported being struck by an unknown projectile off Oman, with all crew safe and authorities investigating, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency.
• US President Donald Trump says the US will not pursue an export ban after G7 nations agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel reserves.
• Jordan’s King Abdullah II has called for a comprehensive de-escalation agreement to protect regional security and sovereignty, during a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump says Iran war could end ‘very soon, probably right after the elections’

US President Donald Trump, speaking at a rally in Mobile, Alabama, has again said the war with Iran could end soon, while questioning whom in Tehran Washington could negotiate with and insisting Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon.

His key remarks:

• “I don’t know who the hell to deal with. There’s nobody to deal with. Nobody wants to be president. I say, who do I speak to in Iran? … Knock knock, nobody home.”
• “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon … Can’t have a nuclear weapon.”
• “This should have been done by other presidents for years … We always have to do the dirty work.”
• “They [Iranians] have no navy, they have no air force, they have no radar, they have no anti-aircraft [defence systems].”
• “Their economy is down the tubes … They have about 310 percent inflation.”
• “It’s [the war is] going to end very soon, probably right after the elections.”
• “How about the blockade? We call it a wall of steel.”
• “As soon as it [the war] does end, oil prices will come tumbling down.”

Trump also said the US would soon begin replenishing its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

• “We’re going to be filling up very shortly our strategic reserves, for nothing,” he said, without providing further details.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt left on Sunday from San Diego, California.

The Makin Island Marine Expeditionary Force also departed from San Diego on Monday for the Middle East, with more than 2,000 Marines serving with the landing force.

By the end of November, three aircraft carriers and two landing groups will be deployed around Iran.

This brings thousands of troops to CENTCOM’s area of responsibility along with more firepower from F-35 and F-18 fighter jets, boosting US military power in the region which the Department of Defense has consistently maintained.

So, there will be three aircraft carriers in US CENTCOM area, which covers the Middle East and Central and South Asia.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has said they’re ready to go if President Trump orders any strikes amid threats of fresh US attacks on Iran.

US and Iran both believe time is on their side

Salim Zakhour, a researcher specializing in constitutional law and political systems, said that Washington and Tehran each believe they hold the stronger hand in the negotiations.

“The American side seems to consider that time is on its side and that the cards of power are in its favor at this stage,” he said, pointing to US statements and Washington’s hard line in the talks.

He said Iran is conveying the same belief by sticking to its conditions and refusing concessions. “There is a mirroring between the two sides, in that each side considers that it holds the cards of power and will not make concessions.”

That leaves few alternatives, he warned: “The options are not many: field escalation, military escalation. The closer we get to the American midterms without an agreement, the closer we get to military escalation.”

IRGC commander says Iran’s missile industry reaches ‘maturity’

Brigadier General Ali Balali, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and an adviser to the IRGC’s Aerospace Force, says Tehran’s weapons-building capacities are “based on operational requirements”.

Speaking with Iran’s Fars News Agency, Balali said the country’s “missile industry had reached a level of maturity at which it no longer needed anyone else”.

Balali likened missile development to learning to paint, saying that once you master the tools and techniques, you can “create whatever painting you want”.

Democratic midterm win would not necessarily end US war on Iran

Atefeh Taghiani, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, said that a Democratic victory in the US midterm elections would not automatically end the war on Iran.

“If the Democrats win the midterms, this means they will somehow perhaps resort to impeaching President Trump. They will try to do that,” she said, speaking through a translator. “But also, it does not mean they will stop the war on Iran. The position is still very far from that.”

Taghiani said Iran’s reading is that foreign policy rarely decides US elections. “Domestic conditions are what influence voters’ opinions,” she said.

But she said a reckoning for Trump over the war could change that. “Perhaps this matter will raise radical and important questions within American society. Perhaps this matter will show them that they made a mistake regarding Iran,” she said. “Usually this is what leads to shifting American foreign policy, that is, the ballot boxes.”

She said previous US presidents have followed a doctrine of containing Iran through sanctions or military options. “No one thought of reaching concessions with the Iranians or even accepting their red lines,” she said, adding that this “will perhaps change something in American policies toward Iran”.

Oil tanker explodes in Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB News is reporting that an oil tanker has exploded in the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources told IRIB that the tanker, which they described as being in violation, had switched off its tracking system as it entered the strait.

Iran determined to show it is in full control of Strait of Hormuz

Residents of Qeshm Island, which lies in the Strait of Hormuz, heard the sounds of explosions coming from out at sea. Some unofficial Iranian news agencies spoke of the possibility that Iranian air defenses shot down an American drone in those southern Iranian areas. This has happened repeatedly in the past period, both in targeting ships described as violators and in targeting American drones.

There are no official statements yet about what happened in that area of the Strait of Hormuz. But it can be said that targeting, whether of drones or ships, is a determined Iranian attempt to prove that it is the one controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and that it is monitoring the situation there completely.

Today, the Iranian army spokesman confirmed this and said that Iran’s armed forces control that area militarily and monitor it around the clock. The adviser to the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guard’s Aerospace Force also stressed that Iran has a great deal of combat equipment it did not use during the war and that it is fully ready for any new war or escalation by the United States or perhaps even Israel.

Iran’s judiciary chief says military forces are in better condition than in previous wars

Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, head of Iran’s judiciary, claimed the condition of the country’s military forces is better than it was in both previous wars, in a post on X.

The previous wars are the 12-day war of June 2025 (Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, joined by the US) and the larger US-Israel campaign, which began on February 28, 2026 (Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion), and lasted roughly 100 days before the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding was signed.

Attacks on tankers in Strait of Hormuz spike over recent days

At least three tankers were struck by unidentified projectiles in and around the Strait of Hormuz since October 1, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) warnings, marking a sharp escalation in commercial shipping attacks.

Early Saturday, a crude oil tanker was hit on its port side approximately 4 nautical miles east of Oman, UKMTO reported. The strike followed two incidents on Friday, where an outbound vessel suffered a small fire and blackout, while a second crude tanker was struck nearby. On Thursday, a supertanker carrying 2.5 million barrels caught fire after being hit off Oman while transiting an unauthorized route, according to Iranian news agency Fars.

Iranian state media, citing the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, said seven tankers were targeted over five days. Authorities specifically named AL RUWAIS, SINBAD, and MERSIN PROSPERITY as repeat non-compliance violators, all of whom Tehran has claimed are “owned or chartered by the United Arab Emirates.”

Earlier today, Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB News reported that an oil tanker exploded in the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources told IRIB that the tanker, which they described as being in violation, had switched off its tracking system as it entered the strait.

Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi, spokesman for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated last Tuesday that any vessel attempting to cross the Strait without Iran’s permission could be targeted or might strike a mine.

Iran’s Pezeshkian says new measures in place amid stricter sanctions

Amid harsh sanctions and economic pressure, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says the government has adopted a “new arrangement to manage these special conditions”.

“The enemy’s plan in recent months has been to cut off the country’s vital arteries with the aim of pressuring the noble people of Iran”, the president said in a post on X.

“Economic pressure has intensified, but by the grace of God, with the accompaniment of the people and the measures taken by our colleagues in the government, we have not allowed the enemy’s objectives in the economic war to be realised,” Pezeshkian added.

Sanctions and threats will strengthen Iran’s resolve, not weaken it

Atefeh Taghiani, a professor at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera that economic pressure and threats from Washington are unlikely to push Iran to back down.

“As long as there is an existential threat facing the Iranians and as long as President Trump continues this narrative of eliminating Iran or forcing it to surrender, this will strengthen the Iranians’ resolve,” she said.

Recalling the first nuclear deal, she said: “Huge sanctions were imposed on Iran and these sanctions did not push the Iranians to back down.” She said Obama “was the one who took the first step, not the Iranians”.

Trump says Iran ‘decimated’

Speaking to reporters, Trump said Iran has “virtually given up any plans of a nuclear weapon”.

He also said “we have a decision that I’ll make about Iran. Iran has been decimated, so the only question is it’ll either be the easy way or the hard way.”

Iranian state media says UAE to free Iranian prisoners

Iranian state media says a number of Iranian prisoners held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been freed and will return to Iran within hours, following efforts by an Iranian diplomatic and security delegation.

IRIB, Iran’s state broadcaster, said the prisoners had been held for years in UAE prisons and that a significant number of them are women. It said the delegation had promised that other Iranian prisoners in the UAE would be freed in the near future.

UAE frees Iranian prisoners in latest in series of releases

A group of Iranian prisoners held in United Arab Emirates jails for years was released on Thursday, Iran’s embassy in Abu Dhabi said, the latest in a series of prisoner releases.

The group included several Iranian women, according to Iranian media.

The move follows a string of similar releases in recent months. In July, the Iranian embassy announced the release of 55 Iranian fishermen detained by UAE Coast Guard forces in March and April. Most were from Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan provinces and had spent over two months in facilities in Suwaihan, Ras Al Khaimah and Sharjah. The detentions were attributed to “special regional circumstances” and tracking system disruptions.

Also in July, UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan pardoned 21 Iranian prisoners following contacts during Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’s visit to Abu Dhabi. A separate release of 15 Iranians was reported around the same period, and in February reports indicated the UAE was set to release another 21 pardoned prisoners.

Iranian state media consistently frames the releases as victories for Iranian diplomacy, referring to the charges against detainees as “baseless”.

Global diesel supply remains ‘significantly below pre-war levels’

Former head of the International Energy Agency’s Oil Industry and Markets Division Neil Atkinson says the G7’s fuel release is welcome but “doesn’t deal with the fundamental problem that the global supply remains lower than normal”.

Atkinson says that “seven months after this war started in the Middle East, we are still in a situation where the global supply of crude oil or products remains significantly below pre-war levels.”

“We are now in a situation where the focus is on end use of products, mainly diesel, which is what we’re talking about here.”

Atkinson outlined the three key factors contributing to the decline in global diesel supply.

First, “there isn’t diesel coming out of the Middle East to Europe, and Europe took quite a lot of diesel from Saudi Arabia and from Kuwait.”

Second, “Russia has now ceased to export diesel at all” due to “the attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries”.

“And China is no longer exporting diesel,” he added. “We’re in a situation where demand remains relatively high and is likely to stay high because of the agricultural harvesting season.”

Key operational details missing in Europe’s plan to release diesel reserves

Naeem Aslam, a chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets in London, has said that the details of Europe’s deal to release diesel stocks are “very sketchy” from an operational perspective.

“The announcement seems to be intended to ease off the pressure, but the actual structural changes; who is going to release them, and where the bans would be lifted, remains unclear,” said Aslam.

He added that the decision is only an attempt to “slow down the bleed,” and will have an adverse influence on the market.

“Imagine a situation when there is a run on the market, and all of a sudden central banks come, and they say you can only withdraw a certain amount of money from the bank, that actually slows down the bleeding process, but it also creates more volatility in that particular aspect of investor confidence in those institutions,” said Aslam.

“Now, exactly the same rule applies over here. This is a massive announcement to slow down the bleed, but the actual structural issues in relation to the Strait of Hormuz are still there, making consumer confidence in the market shaky.”

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IEA says 325 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves released so far

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says member countries have so far released 325 million barrels of oil and oil-derivative products from their strategic reserves out of the 400 million barrels promised in March.

The update came a day after G7 countries, in coordination with the IEA, agreed to immediately release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil to ease global energy supply concerns caused by the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran.

The G7 did not say whether the 100 million barrels included the outstanding 75 million barrels from the March commitment or came on top of that.

Iran’s South Pars Phase 11 hits peak gas production

Iran has completed the development of Phase 11 of the South Pars gasfield, reaching a production capacity of 1 billion cubic feet (28.3 million cubic metres) per day.

According to Iran’s Mehr News Agency, the project was finished using domestic engineering expertise after the departure of foreign partners, including France’s Total and China’s CNPC, after years of delays.

Officials said the milestone will help ease domestic energy imbalances and secure gas supplies for the winter, Mehr added.

Iraqi oil tanker company says 2 million barrels of crude transported through Strait of Hormuz

Iraq’s ⁠Oil Tankers Company has transported 2 ⁠million barrels of ⁠Iraqi crude aboard a very ‌large crude carrier (VLCC) through the Strait of Hormuz, its director general ⁠said in ⁠a statement.

The director general said the movement ⁠⁠was the ⁠⁠company’s first ⁠⁠such operation in decades.

UAE stocks fall as US-Iran deadlock weighs on investors

Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates closed lower on Friday as stalled US-Iran negotiations and heightened regional tensions weighed on investor sentiment.

Dubai’s benchmark index fell 0.5 percent, its fourth consecutive decline, with Emirates NBD dropping 1.9 percent and Salik falling 2.7 percent. In Abu Dhabi, the benchmark index lost 0.3 percent for a seventh straight session, with Alpha Dhabi Holding falling 1.1 percent and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank dropping 1.3 percent.

Markets remain under pressure because of “geopolitical uncertainty and stalled US-Iran talks”, Daniel Takieddine, CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, told the Reuters news agency.

He added that reports of a US military buildup “could weigh on investor sentiment and dampen hopes for a ceasefire, particularly as shipping disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz”.

UK-Iranian man held over RAF airbase incident released on bail

A UK-Iranian dual national who was arrested in connection with a security incident at a British military airbase late last month has been released on bail, counterterrorism police say.

The 25-year-old was arrested in central London on Thursday “on suspicion of preparation of terrorist acts” as part of an investigation into the events near RAF Fairford, in southwest England.

Five other men who were arrested on suspicion of explosives and terrorism offences on Sunday near the airbase in Gloucestershire were also released on bail earlier this week.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said there were “strong indications that Iran played a part” in the incident, which Tehran has rejected. The investigation is ongoing.

King Abdullah and US Secretary of State discuss regional security

King Abdullah II of Jordan has spoken with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about regional security in a phone call, according to a statement on X.

They discussed bilateral and regional issues, including implementing the US-brokered Trilateral Framework in Lebanon, which promises the conditional withdrawal of Israeli troops and disarming of Hezbollah.

Rubio thanked King Abdullah for “Jordan’s steadfast role in advancing regional security”.