• US President Donald Trump says the war on Iran will end “very soon” and asserts that the country will not obtain a nuclear weapon.
• Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, says Trump is trapped in a “quagmire”, where he can neither negotiate nor wage war.
• Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed closer to pre-war levels, averaging about 13.2 million barrels per day over the past week despite ongoing attacks, according to Kpler.
• The Trump administration has added a group of 10 people and companies to its list of global entities being sanctioned over alleged ties to the Iranian military.

Pezeshkian says US, Israel trying to sow internal divisions in Iran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that the United States and Israel are pursuing a strategy to sow and exacerbate internal divisions after failing to conquer the nation using military force, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

“After failing to force the Iranian people to surrender through military war, enemies have focused their entire plan on creating and intensifying internal divisions,” Pezeshkian said during a meeting with mayors from major cities and provincial capitals.

Emphasizing the need to preserve national unity and cohesion, he added: “A group must not weaken the country under the illusion that they are ‘all-knowing’; public participation by all citizens is the most important way to overcome conspiracies.”

Iran will fire as many missiles as necessary to ‘teach the enemy a lesson’, says IRGC advisor

Ali Balali, advisor to the IRGC’s aerospace force commander, has said Iran has enough missiles to continue firing them at the same pace for several years.

In comments carried by Iran’s Fars news agency, Balali said Iran would fire as many missiles as needed to “teach the enemy a lesson”.

Iran receives US response after relaying conditions to reopen Hormuz

Iran has received a proposal from the US as part of diplomatic efforts to “break the deadlock” over the ongoing war, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani says.

In a post on X, Mohajerani said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed receipt of the proposal during a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. He did not elaborate on the US response.

During the meeting, Araghchi also went over details of his recent trip to New York, including meetings with European and Gulf leaders, and the conditions Iran relayed to the US for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

US response to Iran’s Hormuz plan relayed to President Pezeshkian

Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani, in a statement carried by IRNA news agency, said Araghchi received the US reply from Qatari mediators.

During a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the American proposal was also relayed to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. ⁠No details of the US response were given.

Mohajerani said “despite the enemy’s attempts to isolate Iran politically, the Iranian delegation’s presence in New York was a major focus of attention” with numerous meetings held with European, Arab, and other countries. ⁠

Diplomatic efforts are “being pursued diligently” to find solutions to the crisis after more than seven months of war, she added.

 

No details yet on latest US proposal to Iran for Hormuz reopening

This is a long process because Iran’s political system is extremely complicated with Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei at the top along with the Supreme National Security Council. Then you have the cabinet as well as the military side, both the army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

So it will take time for the US proposal to be reviewed and decisions made.

US likely proposing ‘new sequencing’ for Iran agreement

The latest US proposal to Iran likely indicates Washington is seeking to alter the timeline of Iran’s original seven-day plan to end the conflict, an analyst says.

Lucciano Zaccara, an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said it means the United States does not dispute “what they are going to discuss, but how they are going to implement the sequence of the aspects of this agreement”.

“I think both [sides] are trying to get out of this war, saving face at the same time,” Zaccara said.

Both US and Iran face mounting pressure as Middle East war drags on

The United States and Iran are under intense pressure to end the conflict with Tehran’s economy reeling from expanding US sanctions and President Trump looking for a political victory ahead of midterm elections in November, an analyst says.

“Both sides are suffering pressure,” said Luciano Zaccara, an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar.

“Iran needs to get something in exchange for lifting the blockade [of the Strait of Hormuz]. They need the release of sanctions, they need to get money or else the economy will be totally devastated.”

The US, meanwhile, needs to “get out of this mess” in a way in which Trump can plausibly claim to have “won something”, added Zaccara.

Iran-US agreement over Hormuz unlikely

Defence analyst Alex Alfirraz Scheers says the Iranian and US positions are unlikely to converge towards a deal, despite Washington’s response to Tehran’s conditions.

“If you look at the terms of the proposal that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi presented, it included a certain set of conditions – which you can look at from a sequencing perspective – that the US would not have agreed to,” Scheers said.

Scheers said the Iranian proposal involved the lifting of the US sanctions and blockade prior to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“The US has been very clear; they want the reverse sequencing to take place. They want the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to come first,” he added.

“At the moment, there doesn’t seem to be convergence between the two belligerent parties, and I don’t think there will be convergence for some time to come.”

Iran leverage over Hormuz Strait diminished but ‘not lost’

Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz has been weakened by a recent restart in oil transit but Tehran still retains important bargaining chips with the US, says political analyst Negar Mortazavi.

“The rebound in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz shows that Iran’s leverage is being eroded, but it has not lost the Hormuz card,” Mortazavi, host of The Iran Podcast, said.

Iran also retains the ability to “impose costs, create uncertainty and threaten disruption”, she added.

US military protection and other measures have reduced Iran’s ability to control access through the strait, however, keeping oil moving is not the same as restoring normal commercial passage, with shipping costs remaining high and vessels still facing attack, she said.

“Iran’s leverage has, therefore, changed rather than disappeared,” Mortazavi said.

While President Trump can argue Washington is able to keep oil flowing without accepting Tehran’s terms, the US has yet to demonstrate it can restore secure commercial navigation without a significant military commitment, she added.

Iran could lose Strait of Hormuz bargaining chip as oil flows through critical waterway

Oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again, and that could weaken one of Iran’s strongest bargaining chips as it works to end its war with the US.

Crude flows through the strait reached an estimated 9.7 million barrels per day in September, according to data from Kpler, pushing Middle East exports to nearly 80 percent of pre-war levels. At the height of the conflict, traffic through the waterway collapsed to as few as two tankers a day after Iran effectively closed it in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes.

Analysts say it would still be premature to call this normal. “The fact that oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz is encouraging, but flows are not yet regarded as completely secure or guaranteed,” said Susannah Streeter of Wealth Club, pointing to elevated tanker insurance costs and a geopolitical risk premium still built into oil prices.

Iran rejects any suggestion its grip on the strait is slipping. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said Wednesday that a “military conflict” is still under way there, adding that Iran has been “hitting small ships” without a US response.

The rebound comes as Iran also faces mounting economic pressure at home, including a 10.1 percent GDP contraction and inflation near 70 percent, even as Washington’s own economy feels the strain of high diesel prices ahead of the midterms.

US-Iran talks show progress, but ‘final agreement remains elusive’

Political analyst Abdullah Abdulla Banndar al-Etaibi says that current developments regarding the US-Iran negotiations point to “progress in the exchange of proposals, not a final agreement”.

In a post on X, al-Etaibi said the meetings in New York had provided “diplomatic cover” for the process, and that reopening the Strait of Hormuz for seven days could serve as “a confidence-building measure”, temporarily removing it from the escalation equation as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi takes Washington’s response back to Tehran for discussion.

Al-Etaibi said the central question is what guarantees and incentives are on offer to both sides: “Tehran needs financial incentives; Washington needs something it can present as a transitional victory.”

He added that the flurry of recent regional diplomatic effort raises a further question: “Is diplomacy moving ahead of military action, or is it being used to buy time and prepare for it?”

US Defence Secretary claims American forces have ‘destroyed’ Iran’s military, crippled its nuclear ambitions

US forces have “destroyed” Iran’s navy, air force, defence systems, leadership and military-industrial capacity, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a gathering of military leaders at Quantico Marine base outside Washington, DC.

Hegseth credited American troops with crippling Iran’s “conventional shield” and nuclear ambitions.

“These Americans [here] and their peers here have destroyed Iran’s navy, Iran’s air force, their defense system, their leadership and their military industrial capacity, their entire defense space,” Hegseth said. “Iran’s conventional shield has been crippled, and their nuclear ambitions have been crippled and laid bare for the world. You – this group – is ensuring Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.”

Hegseth said the Pentagon has undergone a “clear break” from its past, with a “singular mission” of war-fighting. He said the department had fired “nearly 10 percent of the generals and admirals across the force”, a figure he framed as “accountability” rather than the “purge” as some media have called it.

Hegseth said the Department’s three priorities — “reviving the warrior ethos, rebuilding the military and reestablishing deterrence” — had been achieved, crediting President Donald Trump and declaring the military “stronger than it has ever been in our nation’s history.”

On Iran, Trump says maybe we ‘blow them up’

In response to a question about a deal with Iran, Trump said, “Maybe you blow them up. You have to make that decision. We blow them up, we make a deal, but the time is coming.”

“It will end very soon one way or the other,” the US president told reporters in the Oval Office.

Economic war and US pressure driving Iranian rial’s decline

The Iranian currency’s decline stems from multiple factors, including an “economic war” waged alongside military tensions, according to Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at the University of Tehran.

“There are many factors affecting the exchange rate,” he told Al Jazeera. “One is the economic war, as well as the military war at the same time, because there has been US pressure on the Iranian economy for five decades.”

Eslami linked the current pressure directly to the Strait of Hormuz. “There is a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which affects Iran’s revenues from oil exports and other products such as petrochemicals, which are important to Iran’s economy,” he said. “As a result, Iran’s dollar revenues have been affected by the blockade.”

He added that the exchange rate alone does not capture the full scope of the country’s economic condition. “The exchange rate is a very important indicator, but it is not the only measure for explaining what is happening or the difficulties and challenges facing Iran’s economy,” he said.

Eslami also pointed to persistent inflation. “Inflation is an important factor in explaining Iran’s economic circumstances after decades of the Iranian Revolution.”

Iran turns to Turkey and China as US sea blockade hits economy

Iran’s central bank has chosen to let the market set the beleaguered rial’s exchange rate as US economic warfare continues to hammer the currency, an analyst says.

“The central bank’s initial policy and view now is not to fix the exchange rate and to allow the market to make free decisions on exchanging rials for dollars, rather than having the central bank determine it,” said Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at Tehran University.

The approach has had official backing since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in February, he said. “After the war, every governor of the central bank has supported the idea of not fixing the exchange rate in order to create a balanced economic situation that serves the free market.”

Eslami said dollars are now available in the country. “There is now the ability to purchase US dollars freely. In other words, the central bank is trying to add more US dollars and inject them into the free market.”

Addressing the ongoing US sea blockade, he said: “Iran has an opportunity to make greater use of more than 7,000km (4,300 miles) of land borders with surrounding countries. Measures are therefore being taken to ease the current situation through dealing with neighboring countries such as Turkey, and through exports and imports by rail, as is the case with China.”

Oil prices climb past $103 a barrel

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after Trump denied he would be willing to ease sanctions on Iran, following a drop in the previous session driven by a recovery in Middle Eastern crude supply.

Brent crude futures rose $1.14, or 1.11 percent, to $103.73 a barrel as of 01:30 GMT.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude went up 34 cents, or 0.38 percent, to $89.72.

Brent is headed for a monthly gain of about 14 percent, marking its biggest climb since July, while WTI is on track for a 4 percent rise after having breached $106 for the first time since May.

US states scramble to curb soaring fuel prices amid supply squeeze

US states have introduced a range of measures to curb rising petrol and diesel prices stemming from the US-led war on Iran and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, according to Reuters.

States such as Georgia, Indiana and Kentucky are attempting to lower taxes at the pump, while California and Michigan are expanding the types of fuel permitted for sale. In Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota, authorities are easing transport restrictions for fuel and agricultural goods while supplies remain under pressure.

Meanwhile, the White House is considering regulatory relief for sales of red-dyed diesel. This fuel is generally reserved for off-road use, such as farming, and is exempt from most federal fuel taxes.

Trump said last week that he backs a US diesel export ban to help stabilise domestic markets.

Gulf crude exports excluding Iran back at pre-war levels, but via different routes

Crude exports from Middle East Gulf producers, excluding Iran, have returned to pre-war levels seven months after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reaching at least 16.5 million barrels per day in September, according to data firm Kpler.

The recovery has changed regional oil logistics, Kpler said in a social media statement. About 40 percent of crude now leaves without crossing the strait, up from 17 percent before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates make greater use of pipeline routes.

Of the crude that crossed the Strait of Hormuz in August, more than 70 percent changed tankers offshore, it said.

“The volumes have recovered, but through a fundamentally different export system,” Kpler said.

Trump says talks on a US diesel export ban occur ‘every day’

Trump has said conversations on a US diesel export ban take place “every day” as diesel prices have hit record highs.

Energy analysts have warned that an export ban could have unintended consequences, potentially pushing up fuel prices in the US and abroad.

Trump said an export ban would “have a negative impact on gasoline” prices but would lower diesel costs.

He said Russia’s war in Ukraine is the main cause of rising diesel prices, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright said disruptions were more widespread due to the war on Iran and broader interruptions.

Wright also said the Trump administration expected announcements soon from Europe about new diesel supplies.

The US is the world’s largest diesel exporter. A ban would prevent or restrict US refiners from selling diesel to buyers overseas, theoretically leaving more fuel available in the domestic market.

Saudi minister, US senators discuss defence and security cooperation

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud has met members of the US Senate Armed Services Committee during his visit to the country to discuss defence and security cooperation.

The Saudi Press Agency reported on Wednesday that Prince Faisal and other Saudi officials, including the kingdom’s ambassador to the US, held discussions with committee members regarding defence coordination, regional security efforts, and the latest developments in the region.

The meeting follows talks between the prince and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which focused on escalating hostilities in Yemen and shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar and Egypt discuss regional de-escalation in a phone call

Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has spoken by phone with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.

According to a statement from Qatar’s Foreign Ministry on X, the two reviewed the latest regional developments, in particular diplomatic efforts and joint coordination “to reduce escalation and promote security and stability in the region”.

Sheikh Mohammed reaffirmed Qatar’s support for all diplomatic efforts aimed at a solution that ensures freedom of maritime navigation.

Saudi defense minister holds phone call with British defense minister on ‘defence ties’ and ‘regional stability’

Saudi Minister of Defense, Khalid bin Salman, says he held a call with the British Secretary of Defense, Wes Streeting, in which they discussed “strategic defense relations” and “regional developments.”

In a post in X, bin Salman said he “explored ways to further strengthen our shared efforts to promote regional security and stability.”

The two ministers “exchanged views on topics of mutual interest”, he added.

Russia and Iran discuss cyber security, critical infrastructure under bilateral agreement

Iran and Russian delegations have held talks on enhancing cyber security and safeguarding critical infrastructure, reports Iran’s IRNA news agency.

The talks took place in Moscow, as part of regular bilateral discussions under the countries’ cooperation pact.

The delegations were led by the Director General for International Peace and Security at the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Head of the Information Security Department at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Other key areas of focus during the meeting included identifying and implementing cyber security initiatives, strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure and communication networks against cyber attacks, addressing cyber crime, training personnel to handle cyber incidents; and expanding collaboration in the field of artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Bahrain joins US multinational attack drone task force initiative: CENTCOM

Bahrain has joined the United States Task Force Falcon Strike, a multinational attack drone unit, US Central Command (CENTCOM) reports.

“We’re excited to welcome Bahrain to Task Force Falcon Strike after the kingdom affirmed its commitment to join CENTCOM in building the world’s first multinational attack drone unit,” said Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, in a statement posted on X.

“Bahrain is a steadfast partner in strengthening regional security and stability”, the statement added.

CENTCOM first announced the task force on August 13, saying it would employ one-way attack drones operated from above, on and below the sea by military staff from the US and regional partners.

It builds on Task Force Scorpion Strike, the US military’s first dedicated one-way attack drone squadron in the Middle East, which was used in strikes on Iranian port facilities in July.

NATO chief calls US war in Iran ‘absolutely essential’

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said it was “absolutely essential for the United States to take on Iran”.

In an interview at the Euronews Defence and Space summit, Rutte said only the US was “capable of taking out the nuclear capability of Iran”. He described Iran’s nuclear programme as a potential near-term threat “not only for Israel and the Middle East” but for Europe as well.

He conceded that the Iran war had its “downsides” but added that the extra defence investments will enable European countries to “take care of their backyard themselves”.

“It should be us taking care of the Houthis and the Red Sea”, instead of the US, Rutte said.

UKMTO issues reports of vessels struck in Hormuz

The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations agency says it received several delayed reports of vessels being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.

UKMTO issued three separate incident reports describing vessels struck in the waterway on Tuesday. One vessel as a liquefied natural gas tanker and another as a crude oil tanker. In each case it said the ships were hit by an “unknown projectile” and authorities are investigating.

The agency also said on Tuesday it received another report of a vessel being attacked while transiting Hormuz. The incident caused a fire that was later extinguished, and the crew was reported safe and continued their journey.

IRGC says ships targeted in Hormuz daily but US ‘doesn’t respond’

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi says there is “military conflict” in the Strait of Hormuz daily.

“We have been hitting small ships and preventing them from passing for a long time, but America does not respond,” Mohebbi said in an interview with the semi-official Fars news agency.

The comments come as Iran’s top leaders review a US proposal passed on by Qatar responding to Tehran’s offer to reopen Hormuz in return for an end to economic warfare by Washington.

The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations agency said at least three commercial vessels were targeted on Tuesday in the critical waterway.

Pete Hegseth expected to slash admiral and general positions in US army

A Pentagon official has confirmed that the US defence secretary will cut the number of positions reserved for generals and admirals by 20 percent.

Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defence, planned last year to cut down the number of admirals and generals by 10 percent by January 2027. This year, he decided to double the number to 20 percent during his upcoming State of the Force address coming up in the next few hours, as we’re being told by Pentagon officials.

This is something that the Pentagon and the secretary of defence have wanted to do. He wants to cut a lot of positions that he deems unnecessary.

This cut will impact the leadership of the army, the navy and the air force. We don’t know who is going to be cut and what positions specifically, or if they are going to be forced to resign or have their ranks lowered to captain or colonel.

These are still questions that we are asking the Pentagon. But as of now, there is an active military campaign against Iran; there are 50,000 US troops who are actively serving and maintaining the US naval blockade, so there are a lot of questions about who is going to be impacted by the decision and how it’s going to impact overseas operations.

RAF Airbase, Fairford - England

UK police say no explosive found in vans discovered near RAF Fairford

UK counterterrorism police have revealed that no explosive devices were found as part of their investigation into a suspected plot to target Fairford airbase. Authorities say a quantity of petrol was recovered from the vehicles at the site.

On Monday, UK police released five people on bail after arresting them for a suspected attack plot on the base. The airbase has been used by US forces to strike Iran.

UK prime minister says ‘strong indication’ of Iran involvement in RAF Fairford inciden

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said there are strong indications Iran had a role in the security incident near the US-run Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford air base in the UK.

Five men were arrested on Sunday on suspicion of offences including “preparation of a terrorist act” under UK anti-terrorism laws. The suspects were released on bail by UK police the following day. British counter-terror police said the five are all UK nationals who are based in London and are aged between 23 and 25.

The RAF airbase in Gloucestershire has long been used by US and NATO forces. Since March, the US has used it to launch attacks on Iran, and the UK has authorised US bombers based there to strike Iranian missile sites targeting ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s foreign minister rejects UK claim of Tehran’s role in airbase incident

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has dismissed UK claims that Iran played a role in the RAF Fairford incident, accusing the UK of misdirected blame.

Responding to UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s statement that the government believes “Iran to have played a part” in the incident, Araghchi wrote in a post on X: “I can confirm Iran’s belief that releasing supposed terrorists working for foreign states really says it all. You’re barking up the wrong tree.”

Trump says more information soon on release of RAF Fairford suspects

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that more information would emerge later in the day regarding why UK authorities freed individuals arrested in a suspected plot against a British airbase used by US forces to strike Iran.

UK police have released on bail five men arrested on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offences near RAF Fairford in western England on Monday.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has stated that there were “strong indications” of Iranian involvement in the suspected plot. Iran has rejected the claim.